We all have a big financial stake in housing — as homeowners, renters, landlords and/or taxpayers.

Let’s consider the major macroeconomic trends in 2016 that will significantly impact those stakes.

● Homeowners should enjoy another year of solid gains in house prices. Prices have been moving steadily higher since the housing bust hit bottom four years ago and should post another gain in the middle single digits. With a bit of luck, prices nationwide could reach close to the all-time peaks seen in the housing bubble a decade ago.

This time, however, house prices are on very solid foundations; they are supported by homeowners’ incomes. In the bubble, too many of us got into homes we couldn’t afford by committing to mortgages that made no financial sense. Of course, millions defaulted on these loans, resulting in the financial crisis and the Great Recession.

No one is getting crazy mortgages today. Regulatory changes in the wake of the crisis and chastened (thus much more cautious) mortgage lenders make that all but impossible.

The financial affliction of negative homeowners’ equity, in which the house is worth less than the mortgage due, is fast fading. At the worst of the problem, close to 17 million homeowners were underwater. By the end of 2016, that should be down to a more typical 5 million homeowners.

[What to expect in the 2016 housing market]

Market conditions should be good for owners looking to sell their homes. The historically low number of new and existing homes for sale makes it even more of a seller’s market. Many homeowners appear to have a psychological antipathy to selling until prices have fully recovered from the bust, so this could be an auspicious time for those willing to sell.

Home-buyers have to grapple with the higher prices and lack of inventory, but they should benefit from an improving job market, continued low mortgage rates and easier credit. With the economy set to achieve full employment in coming months, the so-far lackluster wage growth is picking up. Fixed mortgage rates are unlikely to stay below 4 percent for much longer, but they don’t appear set to rise sharply either.

● First-time home-buyers, in particular, should have an easier go of it. The Federal Housing Administration, the government agency that primarily helps first-timers get mortgages, cut its fees last year and may do so again soon as its finances continue to improve.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the big mortgage lenders owned by taxpayers since the crisis, are also working to lower the high credit bar many potential buyers have struggled to get over. The credit scores that borrowers need to get a loan are still very high by historical standards, but they have finally begun to normalize.

[What a Fed rate hike could mean to mortgage borrowers]

● For renters, 2016 will be a difficult year, as rents continue to rise strongly in most parts of the country. The problem is that demand for rental units has been outstripping supply, and vacancy rates are now about as low as they have been in 30 years. Fueling demand are the millennials who are finally finding jobs and striking out on their own, along with households that have lost their homes in foreclosure, and more empty-nesters looking to downsize and simplify.

Builders are ramping up construction of apartments, but in most places they still aren’t meeting the demand, especially for affordable rental units in urban centers. Rents will continue to rise strongly.

● It is worth noting that builders have also been slow to increase construction of new single-family houses, which are also in increasingly short supply. Housing has swung from being vastly oversupplied in the bust to being in what more and more is a shortage. This is a problem mainly for affordable, starter homes.

Of course, quickly rising rents are a boon to landlords. It’s no exaggeration to say that 2016 may be the best year ever for those fortunate enough to own multifamily property. Vacancy rates are low, rents high, and prices for apartment complexes have never been better. Wealthy foreign investors from places including China and Germany are clamoring to own U.S. real estate.

[How shifting home values are reshaping the Washington area]

● In general, taxpayers should be pleased with 2016 as they reduce their support to the housing market. During the crisis, the government had no choice but to step into the void left by the failing financial system and ensure that homeowners could still get a mortgage. Thus, taxpayers’ takeover of Fannie and Freddie; they are too big to fail.

Fannie and Freddie will remain under government stewardship for the foreseeable future, but they are selling to private financial institutions more of the risk that they take on when backstopping mortgage loans. This risk-sharing could be expanded even more, as private investors seem very interested in taking on more risk, and Fan and Fred should oblige.

To sum up, homeowners, landlords and taxpayers should have a good 2016; renters, not so much. Gauging trends in housing is often an intrepid affair, but these trends seem firmly in place for the coming year.

Zandi is the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Who knew? The Federal Reserve raised its funds rate barely three months ago, and all that worry about higher interest rates for mortgage borrowers ended up being positively unwarranted. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage began a free fall, reacting to financial markets overseas rather than monetary policy here at home.

“Mortgage rates are going down again, and it’s good for borrowers, but is it really good for the housing market and the broader economy? The answer is no,” said Guy Cecala, CEO and publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance.

Mortgage rates are falling because investors are flooding the U.S. bond market. Mortgage rates follow the yield on bonds that loosely follow the 10-year Treasury. Investors are buying bonds as a safety play in a highly volatile and largely negative stock market. Signs of weakness in the U.S. economy, in addition to trouble in overseas markets, pushed the yield on the 10-year Treasury to its lowest level since 2012, and mortgage rates followed south.

“If stocks are selling, and if people are generally pretty panicked about the state of the global economy, bond markets are a natural safe haven,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily. “Popular opinion about rates moving higher only helped. Too many people were on one side of that trade, and it almost always makes sense to root for the underdog in those scenarios.”

Lower mortgage rates certainly offer homebuyers lower monthly payments and at the same time help them to qualify for larger loans, so they can buy more expensive homes. The latter is particularly pertinent this spring, as home prices are rising due to record low supply of homes for sale. On the flip side, a weaker economy, stock market losses and general unease about the fate of employment and wage growth all hurt housing.

“Frankly, a healthier economy would be mortgage rates in the 5 percent range, but that’s also assuming you could get 2 percent in your checking account,” Cecala said.

Read More What negative rates mean for average investors

Now not only are mortgage rates nearing their record lows set in 2012, there is new talk of the Federal Reserve moving to a negative interest rate policy. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said Thursday it was not out of the realm of possibility.

This would not, however, translate to negative mortgage rates. That is impossible. Lenders only lend if they can make money.

“As far as the connection to mortgage rates, it’s no different than it was,” said Graham. “The Fed rate is only loosely connected over longer time horizons. Whether the Fed hikes or cuts below zero, the global economic panic will be good for rates.”

It could, however, push rates into the 2 percent range, which would have a significant impact on borrowers. It would help those on the low end but could hurt jumbo loan borrowers. Banks, which generally hold these larger loans on their own books, would not want to lend in that environment,

“We would go back to a situation where conforming government mortgages are considerably cheaper than private jumbo,” said Cecala. “All you’re doing is asking them [banks] to shrink their margin and get nothing in return because there is no way to lower their cost of funds from 0 to 0.”

Cecala does not expect the Fed to move rates lower. He cites the fact that the nation went through one of the worst recessions in history, and the Fed never moved below zero. The bigger issue is that most lenders have stopped hedging for rate drops, so, Cecala added, “It may to cause a lot of losses and shake up things.”